🔍 Deep Dive
April 9, 2026 · 6 min read
Tomorrow in Islamabad: Two Sides, Two Different Deals
Vance, Witkoff and Kushner arrive Friday. Iran's delegation arrives tonight. Pakistan is the host and mediator. The problem: the U.S. and Iran each believe they already won the negotiations that haven't started yet. Here is what each side is bringing to the table.
The Islamabad talks begin Saturday morning local time — brokered by Pakistan, mediated by Field Marshal Munir, hosted by PM Sharif. It is the first direct engagement between U.S. and Iranian officials since the war began on February 28. JD Vance will lead the American delegation. Iran's team arrived in Islamabad on Thursday night.
Before they sit down, it is worth understanding what each side believes it is negotiating — because the two starting positions are not just different. They contradict each other in several fundamental ways.
The Delegations
Who Is in the Room
U.S. Delegation
VP JD Vance
Delegation lead — first VP-level Iran contact since war began
Steve Witkoff
Special envoy — led pre-war nuclear negotiations
Jared Kushner
Senior adviser — Trump's personal diplomatic channel
Iran Delegation
TBC Senior Official
Identity not confirmed — delegation arrived Islamabad Thursday night
Reza Amiri-Moghaddam
Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan — confirmed on X: "serious talks based on 10 points"
Pakistan as mediator
PM Sharif + Field Marshal Munir — the broker of the ceasefire itself
What Each Side Believes It Already Won
The Gap Before Talks Begin
U.S. Position
Iran agreed to open Hormuz completely, immediately and safely. There will be no uranium enrichment. Iran's nuclear program must be verifiably ended. The 10-point plan is "a workable basis to negotiate" — not an agreement. Lebanon is not covered by the deal.
Iran's Position
The U.S. accepted all 10 points as the framework. That includes Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz, acceptance of uranium enrichment, full sanctions relief, U.S. military withdrawal from the region, and war reparations. Lebanon is covered — it was in Pakistan PM's announcement.
On Nuclear Enrichment
Trump: "There will be NO enrichment of uranium." Rubio: Iran "can never have nuclear weapons." Hegseth: the enriched uranium is "buried" and the U.S. is "watching it" and will "take it" if needed.
On Nuclear Enrichment
Iranian state media: the 10-point plan includes "acceptance of enrichment." IRGC statement: the U.S. committed to "accepting Iranian enrichment" as part of the deal. Iran has 450+ kg of 60%-enriched uranium — enough for multiple weapons.
On Hormuz
Trump: "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING." White House: "opposed to tolls." Hegseth: Iran "voluntarily opening." No fee arrangements accepted.
On Hormuz
Iran: "controlled passage coordinated with Iranian armed forces." $1/barrel fee reported. $2M per ship fee reported. IRGC: the U.S. accepted Iran's "smart management" of the strait. Currently: closed again.
📊 The Nuclear Problem: The entire war began because Trump said Iran was rebuilding its nuclear program. The U.S. 15-point plan required nuclear dismantlement. Iran's 10-point plan reportedly includes enrichment rights. If Iran's version is accurate — that the U.S. accepted enrichment — then the fundamental justification for the war has been abandoned. If the U.S. version is accurate — no enrichment — then Iran has nothing to gain from Friday's talks and may walk out. There is no middle position on this.
"Ceasefires are always messy. An hour after Trump announced the ceasefire, there were several missile launches." — VP Vance, April 8, 2026
🎯 The Bottom Line
The Islamabad talks begin Saturday with two delegations who each believe the other side already conceded the core issues. The U.S. says no enrichment. Iran says enrichment was accepted. The U.S. says Hormuz opens free. Iran says it opened for $1/barrel under Iranian control. The U.S. says Lebanon isn't covered. Iran says it is. Before any new agreement can be negotiated, the two sides must first agree on what was agreed on Tuesday. That alone may take the full two weeks.
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