The Texas GOP Civil War
The Texas GOP Civil War
Nobody Wanted to Admit
Cornyn vs. Paxton. $122 million spent. Trump staying quiet. The 2026 midterms just officially kicked off — and the Republican Party's identity crisis came with them.
On March 3, Texas held the first major primaries of the 2026 midterm cycle — and the results told us something important about where the Republican Party actually stands, one year into Trump's second term. Spoiler: nobody quite knows.
In the Republican Senate primary, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton both failed to clear 50%, sending the race to a runoff on May 26. On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico dispatched Rep. Jasmine Crockett to become the party's nominee — in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate race since 1988.
Meet the Fighters
To understand why this race matters, you need to understand who these two men are — and what each one represents inside a Republican Party that is very much still figuring out what it is.
- John Cornyn: 23-year Senate veteran, former Majority Whip. Supported bipartisan gun safety legislation after Uvalde. Once suggested Trump wasn't the most electable 2024 candidate. Running as a Trump ally anyway — his ads say he "votes with Trump 99% of the time."
- Ken Paxton: Texas AG since 2015. Impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges. Acquitted by the state Senate. Currently going through a very public divorce — his wife cited "biblical grounds." A hardcore MAGA favorite who entered the race on Laura Ingraham's Fox News show.
- Wesley Hunt: Houston congressman who entered late, split the anti-Cornyn vote, and effectively handed Cornyn a stronger-than-expected first-round finish. Conceded on election night without endorsing either remaining candidate.
- James Talarico (D): 36-year-old state rep, Presbyterian seminarian, former teacher. Beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett 53%-46% in the Democratic primary. Will face whichever Republican survives May.
The Trump Question Nobody Can Answer
Here's the thing that makes this race genuinely fascinating: Trump has refused to endorse anyone. In a primary where all three candidates built their entire campaigns around proximity to Trump — where ads described Cornyn as "tough as nails on illegal immigration," where Paxton portrayed himself as Trump's true heir apparent — the man himself sat on his hands and said he supports "all three."
Why? Because Trump is good at one thing above all else: not losing. By staying neutral, he gets credit regardless of who wins. If Cornyn wins the runoff and holds the seat in November, Trump backed "all three." If Paxton wins and — as some Republicans fear — loses to Talarico in a blue wave, Trump never technically endorsed the guy.
"He's getting the best of all possible worlds. He might endorse in the runoff, but I think he'll stay out and just let the chips fall where they may."
— Bill Miller, Texas political consultantFor what it's worth, Trump advisers have reportedly signaled he may endorse Cornyn ahead of the May runoff — after Cornyn's stronger-than-expected first-round performance. But nothing is confirmed. This is Trump. Nothing is ever confirmed until it's posted on Truth Social at 11pm.
Why Paxton Scares Republicans
Paxton performed better than many establishment Republicans hoped — finishing within 1.2 percentage points of a sitting four-term senator despite being impeached, acquitted, and divorced on "biblical grounds" all within the past three years. That tells you something about the Texas Republican base right now.
But the general election math is the thing that keeps GOP strategists up at night. Paxton trails hypothetical Democratic opponents in general election polling. In a normal midterm year, that might not matter much in Texas. But 2026 is not shaping up to be a normal midterm year. The first primaries have already drawn record turnout — over 2.5 million early votes, the highest ever for a Texas midterm primary. Enthusiasm is high. And enthusiasm cuts both ways.
"The runoff will be the hardcore primary voters, and that's his base. He'll be extraordinarily difficult to defeat in a runoff."
— Bill Miller, on Paxton's chances in the May runoffThe Democrat Who Shocked the Room
Meanwhile, James Talarico was busy doing something Democrats haven't done in Texas in a while: winning, and doing it with a clear message.
"Tonight, our campaign is shocking the nation," he told supporters early Wednesday morning. "We are not just trying to win an election. We are trying to fundamentally change our politics."
Is he going to flip Texas blue? Almost certainly not. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since 1988. But if Paxton emerges from the May runoff — damaged, controversial, and facing a well-funded opponent in a midterm environment growing increasingly hostile to Trump — stranger things have happened.
What This Means for November
The Texas primary tells us three things about the 2026 midterms:
One: The Republican Party's civil war is real, expensive, and unresolved. Cornyn and Paxton represent genuinely different visions of what the GOP should be — and $122 million in ad spending hasn't settled the question.
Two: Democrats are more competitive than the conventional wisdom suggests. Talarico winning a clean primary in Texas — against a higher-profile opponent — with a mild, bridge-building message rather than a firebrand one, is a data point worth watching.
Three: Trump's silence is its own kind of statement. A party that built itself entirely around one man's endorsement is now watching that man sit out its most expensive primary fight. Whether that reflects strategic genius or quiet concern about the midterm environment — only Trump knows. And he's not saying.
The runoff is May 26. Mark your calendars. We'll be watching.
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